Let’s do a Gedanken experiment, i.e. a thought experiment. Let’s assume that AI has advanced sufficiently to satisfy our physiological and safety needs. What would we then need to worry about? Again, we are going to use invariants to determine what may happen in the future. I previously discussed invariants as a means of predicting the future here.
Now, what is the invariant in this scenario? The invariant is land. The amount of land on Earth is unlikely to increase from now until the distant future. It may even decrease. I think it is reasonable to assume that we are not getting any more land on Earth. There are three scenarios to consider. The demand for land, driven partly by population size, may increase, decrease, or remain the same. In scenarios where the demand for land decreases or remains the same, there is no serious problem.
However, if the demand for land increases, we may eventually need to make some tough decisions. It is possible that demand could increase to such an extent that we would no longer be able to sustain ourselves collectively. Before AI, population growth was partly restrained by the fact that children had to be supported financially. Looking ahead, parents may limit the number of children they have if they do not possess the resources needed to provide for them. However, anyone who lives in the real world knows that some people ignore their lack of resources and continue having children they cannot adequately support. Now imagine this situation being intensified by AI covering the cost of food, clothing, and shelter.
“Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” I certainly hope we reach a future in which the demand for land is lower or remains the same, but we should still plan for the worst-case scenario. In that scenario, I do not see how reproduction could avoid being controlled in some form. Can you think of an ethical solution to overpopulation that does not involve some form of reproductive control?
I am not suggesting that we should immediately impose reproductive controls. In fact, I may be discussing a problem that never arises. The current trend among people with greater economic resources is not to have more children, but fewer. Before considering stronger forms of reproductive control, voluntary methods should be used to encourage people to limit the number of children they have.
If you are interested in this type of thinking (invariants for analysing the future), I have written a book called Veritas: Truths Across Cultures. It catalogues 94 recurring sayings, truths, and invariants found across diverse cultures.
You can find samples of the book here. You can get a copy here.